Setabay Private Hard Money Lender

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Texas Commercial Mortgages: Billions at stake due to Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey puts many securitized commercial mortgages in Texas at risk.

Moody’s claims some 1,500 properties may have been impacted by Hurricane Harvey amounting to 19.4 billion in outstanding CMBS loans. The number of CMBS financed properties at risk varies with each analysis. Competing methods of analyzing the storms damage to investors’ portfolios have emerged. One method is to consider the wider area impacted by the storm, the other is to consider the areas that were more acutely impacted.

One method of analyzing the damage is to consider properties in the disaster area declared by Governor Gregg Abbott. The area includes 54 counties and reaches as far as San Antonio. An opposing approach is to consider the disaster area declared by FEMA, an area encompassing some 33 counties. The first approach gives a broader sense of the storms potential impact on CMBS properties, while the second offers a more clinical assessment.

In the state declared disaster area there are about 1,200 CMBS loans amounting to 15.1 billion dollars that could be impacted by the storm. These loans are not government sponsored, and therefore, pose a higher credit risk to investors. Retail properties have the highest exposure among these loans. Making up 32.9 percent of the total, or 5 billion dollars, of the outstanding CMBS loans.

Considering the areas impacted according to FEMA the number of CMBS loans at risk is smaller, but the overall impact remains the same. In the 33 counties declared “disaster-areas” by the agency there are 900 non-government sponsored CMBS loans, amounting to a balance of 12.2 billion dollars... Retail properties again face the greatest exposure, making up about 30.1 percent of the total.

It will be difficult to directly quantify the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the CMBS market and Texas commercial mortgages in the short term.

Whether analysts consider the broader area impacted by Hurricane Harvey or the areas more acutely impacted the extent of the damage to the CMBS market will be difficult to estimate in the short term. The damage to each individual property will have to be assessed.

What is clear from both overviews is that retail makes up the largest share of CMBS loans potentially impacted by the storm. The performance of these loans in the future will largely depend on how the local economy recovers and whether these retailers will be able to retain their customers.

In the long term securitized commercial mortgages in Texas will continue to face risk from natural disasters.

Simply put CMBS lenders don't underwrite the potential cost of natural disasters. Therefore the market will always face exposure when disasters like Hurricane Harvey take place. Flood insurance, FEMA assistance and the willingness of private insurers to underwrite risk encourages development in disaster prone areas, in Texas and throughout the nation. Insurance may repair the damage caused by these disasters on the surface, putting some investors at ease. But the damage Hurricane Harvey inflicted on the local economy remains unclear. With retail properties facing the greatest exposure, the greatest risk to CMBS loans is not superficial damage that can be repaired, but Harvey's long term damage to the local economy and whether retailers can secure customers in areas where the population is displaced.

Dennis Dahlberg
Broker/RI/CEO/MLO
Level 4 Funding LLC Private Hard Money Lender
Arizona Tel: (623) 582-4444
Texas Tel: (512) 516-1177
Dennis@level4funding.com NMLS 1057378 | AZMB 0923961 | MLO 1057378
22601 N 19th Ave Suite 112 | Phoenix | AZ | 85027
111 Congress Ave |Austin | Texas | 78701

About the Author: Dennis has been working in the real estate industry in some capacity for the last 40 years. He purchased his first property when he was just 18 years old. He quickly learned about the amazing investment opportunities provided by trust deed investing and hard money loans. His desire to help others make money in real estate investing led him to specialize in alternative funding for real estate investors who may have trouble getting a traditional bank loan. Dennis is passionate about alternative funding sources and sharing his knowledge with others to help make their dreams come true. Dennis has been married to his wonderful wife for 42 years. They have 2 beautiful daughters 5 amazing grandchildren. Dennis has been an Arizona resident for the past 40 years.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Commercial Real Estate Texas: What Tenants need to know

If you lease commercial real-estate in Texas, your land lord is obligated to protect your health and safety. However if a land lord refuses to make reasonable repairs it is vital that you don't take preemptive steps.

There are two types of conventional commercial leases in Texas, the periodic lease and the term lease. The periodic lease gives the tenant having the option of terminating the lease at the end of each month. Under a periodic lease tenants are obligated to pay rent for a full month plus one day, before vacating the property. Term leases last for a period agreed upon between the land lord and the tenant. Under this type of lease generally no changes can be made until the lease is up for renewal. Under a term lease tenants may have to pay the cost of maintaining the property.

No matter what type of lease your business has the land lord is obligated to ensure your basic health and safety. The land lord must ensure basic fire protection and ensure that devices like smoke detectors are well maintained. The land lord must maintain basic security and keep locks and alarms are in working order. Apart from these basic conditions, the land lord’s responsibilities will largely be defined by the terms of your lease. If you believe poor conditions have a material impact on your health and safety, the land lord is obligated to make repairs. If your lord refuses to make repairs, it is vital that you avoid withholding rent or taking preemptive action.

If you lease commercial real-estate in Texas, take specific steps before taking any action against your land lord.

The Texas Attorney Generals website advises you to make any complaint directly to your land lord via a certified letter. Clearly outline the repairs needed to the property. Prior to taking this step, be sure your rent is current. Upon sending the letter, request documentation proving your land lord received it. The land lord must make repairs within a reasonable time frame. This is generally within seven days of receiving the letter. If the land lord doesn't take reasonable steps to make the repairs outlined in the letter, send the letter again and wait another seven days. If the land lord doesn't respond, you may be able to terminate the lease. You may also be able to make any necessary repairs yourself and deduct the cost from your rent. You may also sue your land lord in order to compel them to finance the repairs you believe are necessary.

With Texas commercial real-estate the land lord’s responsibilities are largely defined on a case by case basis

Generally the terms of your lease will outline the land lord’s responsibilities for maintaining the property. Although land lords are obligated to protect your health and safety, you may have to prove in court how conditions on the property negatively impact you and explain why you believe your land lord is responsible. Therefore don't violate the terms of your lease prior to sending a certified letter, to demonstrate that the land lord is aware of your complaint. Consult with legal experts if necessary.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Commercial Real Estate Texas: 2017 Trends for the Dallas Office Market

The job market in the Dallas area remains robust. The demand for office properties will increase as business continues to expand. This is pushing prices higher in the short term. A common trend throughout the commercial real-estate market in Texas.

In 2016 Dallas area was the nation’s fastest growing metro. The employment base in Dallas expanded by the 3.5 percent in 2016. This growth in employment was the largest in the nation. Robust economic growth in the Dallas area will ensure a steady demand for office properties over the next few years. This increased demand is pushing prices higher. Although new construction is pushing up the price of office space in the short term, in the long term the Dallas area will likely remain affordable.

Prices for commercial office space are reaching record highs, with some competitive areas reporting prices as high as 50 dollars per square foot. These record high rents reflect the economic growth in the area. New companies are establishing themselves in Dallas and they are willing to pay the increased price for office space. Improved absorption rates in the area demonstrate this fact. Office space is being leased and sold off twice as fast in comparison to the same time last year. Not only are established companies looking for new locations, but new companies are moving into the area as well.

This year 2.5 million square feet of office space was sold or leased. 1.4 Million sq. ft. of which was new construction finished in either 2016 or 2017. The availability of new office space in the area is forcing some land lords to make drastic renovations to their properties to retain existing tenants. Although rental prices this year reached a record high of 25 dollars per square foot, the availability of new construction will make the market more competitive, pushing prices down in the long run.

Speculative construction remains high and this is pushing prices higher. Similar to much of the Texas commercial real-estate market.

New premium office space is selling off quickly in the Dallas area, fueling speculative construction. The total amount of office space under construction is down slightly from last year to roughly 8 million sq. ft. However rental rates are up, with an increase of 5.4 percent year to date. Half of the new premium construction is already leased. Clearly speculative construction is paying off for developers and tenants are willing to pay higher prices. But with construction and demand remaining steady in the area the price of office space is likely to stabilize.

As with much of Texas commercial real-estate, increased supply and steady demand may cause prices to stabilize.

Dallas’ robust economy ensures the demand for new offices will remain steady, fueling further construction. As the supply of office space increases, prices are likely to stabilize from their current highs. The construction of new office space is pushing up average rental prices in the Dallas area this year. However compared to other metropolitan areas, the Dallas area remains relatively affordable. This affordability will make the area attractive to employers for years to come.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Enter a post titleCommercial Real Estate Texas: 2017 Trends for Office Real-estate in San-Antonio

The commercial real-estate market in San Antonio remains resilient, particularly when it comes to office space.

Nation-wide the market for offices seems to be declining or stagnating. The San Antonio market is a unique exception. The market for new offices is rapidly expanding. New jobs are pushing up demand for offices in the area and new construction is filling up fast. Even with record breaking construction, the market may not be keeping pace with demand, pushing the price of office space in the area even higher.

The San Antonio area, like much of Texas, is seeing increased job growth. According to a CRBE analysis 24,900 total jobs were created in the region as of May of 2017. Office-related jobs have expanded by 2 percent this year. This job growth is accelerating the demand for new offices, making the San Antonio market a unique exception when compared to the rest of the nation, where demand appears to be leveling off or declining.

The price of office space in the area is at a record high, with an average price per sq ft at 22.54. This price is 2.7 percent higher than it was when compared to the same time last year. The rental price for Class A properties, with triple net leases, went up an astonishing 10.9 percent just since the last quarter. New properties are charging record these record high rental rates. The average price for office space is likely to increase, as new construction in the area escalates. 1.2 million sq. ft. of office space broke ground this year. Low vacancy rates in the area indicate that many tenants are willing to pay the increased prices.

Low vacancy rates, particularly in the case of new offices, indicates rising demand in the area. 40 percent of the 390,000 sq. ft. delivered so far this year is already leased out. The CBRE analysis quantifies 1.2 million sq. ft. of additional office space will be needed to keep up with future demand. Even with all the recent construction in the area, vacancy rates are lower this year.

As is the case with much of Texas commercial real-estate, the market for offices in San-Antonio is expanding.

Even with record breaking levels of office construction, new offices are filling up fast. As jobs move into the area, the demand for office space will only increase. The speed with which new construction is being sold off could indicate that construction is not keeping pace with current demand.

Increased demand will push rents higher in the area. A common trend with Texas Commercial Real-estate

San Antonio will remain an attractive place to do business for many years to come. The low vacancy rate, even in the face of record prices indicates that tenants in the area are willing to pay a premium for office space. With the vacancy rate tightening and the supply of new offices seemingly insufficient to meet current demand, land lords will continue to have greater leverage to charge even higher rents.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Commercial Real Estate Texas: How will Harvey impact the multi-family real-estate market?

Harvey's impact on Texas commercial real estate will be felt for many years to come. But the multi-family housing market in particular stands to see the greatest impact.

Co-star estimates that some 72,000 apartments were immediately damaged by Hurricane Harvey. The group’s updated analysis puts 75.1 billion dollars of property at risk, with multi-family apartments representing 18.5 billion of that total. With so many residents displaced in the wake of the disaster, the dynamics of Houston's multi-family housing market will change dramatically.

Prior to the storm the Houston multi-family real-estate market was considered oversupplied and by some accounts up to 62,000 units of excess housing existed in the area. 89 percent of multi-family properties were occupied before Harvey's arrival and the market had seen its first up-tick in 5 years. A combination of oversupply and consistent demand gave renters greater leverage prior to the storm. The competitive market forced land lords to offer lower rents in order to lease out excess housing. The amount of available apartment space will no doubt shrink in Harvey's aftermath.

The market will be changed by a shrinking supply of multi-family housing. More and more locations are likely to be condemned due to storm damage. Demand will increase as residents and aid workers seek undamaged places to stay. It is estimated that 200,000 homeowners are currently seeking temporary housing. Ed Wolff, President of Beth-Wolff Realtors, claims occupancy rates for multi-family housing have risen to 97 percent as a result of Hurricane Harvey. Teresa Guidotti Lowery of Colliers International estimates the inventory of multi-family housing has shrunk to some 51,000 units with 30,000 residents already displaced. The available units will obviously fill up in record time. Lowery estimates the outlying suburbs of Houston might not recover for two years, increasing the demand for apartments in the area.

The dynamics of the multi-family market in the Houston area and Texas commercial real-estate will change as a result of Harvey.

The market has clearly shifted in favor of land lords. Apartment space will likely remain at a premium in the Houston area for several years. The obvious flood risk may reduce new apartment construction in the future as insurers charge builders higher premiums. Lowery estimates a sustained increase in rental prices of 4.5 percent. This uptick is not only due to the increased demand from residents seeking temporary housing, but due to insurance pay-outs to landlords. As landlords rebuild and remodel they can charge even higher rental prices. Wolff claims that rebuilt properties can appreciate in value by as much as 10 percent.

Harvey may have changed the landscape of Houston and Texas commercial real-estate forever.

In the short term the supply of apartments will dwindle as storm damaged is assessed and more properties are condemned. The demand for temporary housing on the part of displaced residents should cause a steep rise in rental prices. The obvious flood-risk of the area will decrease new apartment construction in the long term. The greater question is how fast can outlying suburbs be repaired? If repairs are delayed long-enough, displaced residents may choose to remain in temporary apartments, permanently. If that is the case the landscape of Houston may be permanently changed.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Commercial Real-Estate Texas: How will retailers be impacted by Hurricane Harvey?

The unprecedented scope and scale of Hurricane Harvey ensures that all retailers in the Houston area will feel some impact from the storm. However the long term implications of the storm, for retailers, and for Texas commercial real-estate remains unclear.

Planalytics estimates a billion dollar loss in retail sales due to Hurricane Harvey. This is money that won’t be recovered in the long run, even after the local economy recovers. The analysis claims all retailers will feel the impact of the storm in some way or another. But the impact will be felt differently depending on the retailer. Undoubtedly local consumers will change their spending habits.

Out of all retailers, restaurants are likely to suffer the greatest impact from Hurricane Harvey. Restaurants were forced to close during the storm and this immediate impact on sales may have been devastating. Baird’s analyst David Tarnitino, estimated that if Jack in the Box, for example, closed half its locations for five days during the storm it would lose roughly 1 percent of its total sales this quarter. But the brief decline sales for local restaurants are immaterial, as the spending habits of residents change and fewer people go out to eat.

A change in spending habits by residents will hit clothing retailers hard as well. Harvey interrupted the critical back to school shopping season. This is a crucial time for many apparel retailers and clearly in Harvey's immediate aftermath few consumers will be buying clothes. Meaning this crucial shopping period will be a write-off for many businesses. As potentially damaged stores remain closed, customers are likely to shift to online shopping. A boost in e-commerce may have a long term impact, as retailers consider whether the cost of repairing a damaged location is worth it. This assessment by retailers could accelerate store closures in the area. Analyst at B.Riley & Co. LLC, Jeff Van Sinderen said “ (Retailers may) wonder whether it will be worthwhile to repair damage in certain stores. Maybe this will accelerate closures of some marginal stores.”

Home improvement retailers stand to benefit, as residents begin to repair the damage. Home Depot, in particular, is known for its pro-active approach to events like Hurricane Harvey. Prior to natural disasters, Home Depot takes immediate measures to ensure its locations in affected areas are stocked with essential supplies like shovels and flashlights. This approach has served Home Depot well in the past, the company saw a 242 million dollar increase in sales at locations in areas impacted by Hurricane Sandy. Burt Flickinger, of the Strategic Resource Group estimates that Home Depot’s response to Harvey will likely cost the company 50 million dollars. But according to Flickinger, the company’s investment is likely to yield returns some 10-15 times greater than the initial cost of preparation.

The spending patterns of consumers will change in the short term, having an immediate impact on Texas commercial real-estate.

In the immediate aftermath of the storm consumers will spend more on basic needs and on repairs to their property. Restaurants and clothing companies will suffer the most from this change in spending habits, in the short-term, while home improvement stores will likely benefit. However as Houston's economy recovers, customers spending habits will no doubt normalize.

The long term impact on retailers remains uncertain. Considering the impact of similar disasters, Texas commercial real-estate could be impacted for many years to come

Some retailers may not recover from Hurricane Harvey. Taking into account the national average, 40 percent of businesses don't recover from natural disasters of similar magnitude. It is unclear whether this average will hold true in Harvey's case, but no doubt the storm will have some impact on the commercial real-estate market.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Commercial Real Estate Texas: Is Federal Flood Insurance the help small business owners need?

The Federal governments National Flood Insurance Program will offer little relief to small business owners in the wake of Hurricane Harvey This lack of sufficient relief could have a dire impact on Texas commercial real-estate.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) covers 444,000 properties in the areas directly impacted by Hurricane Harvey. Small businesses make up just 1 percent of the total policies under the program. Even so, the NFIP remains the only option for many small business owners to protect themselves against flood damage. Small businesses in the Houston area are likely to suffer economic damage as their customer base dwindles. The few that have federal flood insurance won’t find these economic damages covered.

Small businesses find the maximum coverage offered by the NFIP is inadequate. The 500,000 dollar maximum hasn't increased since 1994. Since then not only has inflation increased the price of doing business, but there is an increased frequency in record breaking storms. 20 storms accounting for at least one billion dollars in damage, have occurred since 2010. The increased amount of damage inflicted by these storms reflects the need for greater coverage particularly for small businesses. This need is demonstrated by the fact that 40 percent of business owners, with a flood insurance policy, opt for the maximum amount of coverage. But even the maximum coverage offered by the NFIP doesn't meet the needs of many business owners.

Unfortunately there are few private alternatives to NFIP insurance. Catastrophic flood insurance is simply not an attractive bet for private companies. Business owners at the greatest of flood damage are often the only ones who purchase this type of coverage. This concentrates risk for insurers, forcing them to raise premiums. Because the NFIP subsidizes its premiums, private insurers simply can’t compete and are priced out of the market. While private insurers have found innovate ways to assess damages, the NFIP’s evaluation methods remain antiquated by comparison.

The greatest fault of the National flood insurance program is its lack of Business interruption coverage. This lack of coverage may greatly impact commercial real-estate in Texas.

Perhaps the greatest fault of the NFIP is that the program lacks business interruption coverage. The program evaluates risk based on the physical characteristics of structures, rather than conditions within the local economy. This leaves the program unable to assess business losses. Many businesses find themselves exposed not to physical damage, but to economic damage. A striking example of the NFIP’s inadequacy to help small businesses was demonstrated by the programs response to Superstorm Sandy. A joint study by the Federal Reserve of New York and the University of Pennsylvania’s Warton School, found more than half of small businesses with flood insurance received no pay out. The greatest impact of the storm for 60 percent of these businesses wasn't physical damage, but a loss of customers. The study’s lead author, Benjamin Collier, concluded that small business is more than twice as likely to suffer economic damage rather than physical damage. The NFIP doesn’t cover this type of damage, leaving many small businesses at risk.

Businesses, small businesses in particular are not sufficiently protected from floods. The NFIP’s inadequacies create uncertainty for commercial real-estate in Texas.

The NFIP needs revisions to protect smaller businesses from future disasters. Without sufficient business interruption insurance, many small businesses in the Houston area may simply disappear as a result of Hurricane Harvey.

Technorati Tags: commercial loans,commercial lending,commercial mortgage

Setabay Private Hard Money Lender

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Texas Commercial Mortgages: Billions at stake due to Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey puts many securitized commercial mortgages in Texas at risk.

It will be difficult to directly quantify the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the CMBS market and Texas commercial mortgages in the short term.

In the long term securitized commercial mortgages in Texas will continue to face risk from natural disasters.

Commercial Real Estate Texas: What Tenants need to know

If you lease commercial real-estate in Texas, your land lord is obligated to protect your health and safety. However if a land lord refuses to make reasonable repairs it is vital that you don't take preemptive steps.

If you lease commercial real-estate in Texas, take specific steps before taking any action against your land lord.

With Texas commercial real-estate the land lord’s responsibilities are largely defined on a case by case basis

Commercial Real Estate Texas: 2017 Trends for the Dallas Office Market

The job market in the Dallas area remains robust. The demand for office properties will increase as business continues to expand. This is pushing prices higher in the short term. A common trend throughout the commercial real-estate market in Texas.

Speculative construction remains high and this is pushing prices higher. Similar to much of the Texas commercial real-estate market.

As with much of Texas commercial real-estate, increased supply and steady demand may cause prices to stabilize.

Enter a post titleCommercial Real Estate Texas: 2017 Trends for Office Real-estate in San-Antonio

The commercial real-estate market in San Antonio remains resilient, particularly when it comes to office space.

As is the case with much of Texas commercial real-estate, the market for offices in San-Antonio is expanding.

Increased demand will push rents higher in the area. A common trend with Texas Commercial Real-estate

Commercial Real Estate Texas: How will Harvey impact the multi-family real-estate market?

Harvey's impact on Texas commercial real estate will be felt for many years to come. But the multi-family housing market in particular stands to see the greatest impact.

The dynamics of the multi-family market in the Houston area and Texas commercial real-estate will change as a result of Harvey.

Harvey may have changed the landscape of Houston and Texas commercial real-estate forever.

Commercial Real-Estate Texas: How will retailers be impacted by Hurricane Harvey?

The unprecedented scope and scale of Hurricane Harvey ensures that all retailers in the Houston area will feel some impact from the storm. However the long term implications of the storm, for retailers, and for Texas commercial real-estate remains unclear.

The spending patterns of consumers will change in the short term, having an immediate impact on Texas commercial real-estate.

The long term impact on retailers remains uncertain. Considering the impact of similar disasters, Texas commercial real-estate could be impacted for many years to come

Commercial Real Estate Texas: Is Federal Flood Insurance the help small business owners need?

The Federal governments National Flood Insurance Program will offer little relief to small business owners in the wake of Hurricane Harvey This lack of sufficient relief could have a dire impact on Texas commercial real-estate.

The greatest fault of the National flood insurance program is its lack of Business interruption coverage. This lack of coverage may greatly impact commercial real-estate in Texas.

Businesses, small businesses in particular are not sufficiently protected from floods. The NFIP’s inadequacies create uncertainty for commercial real-estate in Texas.

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